If you only saw one Livermore headline this month, it was probably alarming: the median sale price dropped to $1,043,000, down nearly 15% from a year ago and the lowest of the past thirteen months. So let me say the quiet part first: Livermore home values did not just fall 15%. What actually happened is more interesting — and if you own a home here or want to, it matters.
OCTOBER BY THE NUMBERS
Median sale price: $1,043,000 — down 14.9% from October 2025
Average sale price: $1,171,448 — down 16.0% year-over-year
Homes sold: 48 — down 18.6% from last October
Average days on market: 21 — down from 30 a year ago
Sale-to-list price ratio: 99% — essentially full asking price
Active inventory at month's end: 106 homes, about 1.9 months of supply
Average price per square foot (sold): $690 — identical to October 2025
Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS® MLS, Livermore detached single-family homes, October 2026.
THE STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Here's the number that unlocks the whole month: $690. That's what Livermore buyers paid per square foot in October 2026 — and it's exactly what they paid in October 2025. Not down 15%. Identical. In fact, this is the third straight month Livermore's price per square foot has matched the prior year almost to the dollar ($702 vs. $697 in August, $679 vs. $680 in September).
When per-square-foot values hold flat while the median swings, the median isn't measuring price changes — it's measuring which homes sold. And in October, with only 48 closings, a larger share of them were smaller, entry-level homes. That pulls the median down mathematically without a single house losing value. One caution worth stating plainly: 48 sales is a small sample, and small-sample months swing. The 13-month trend, not any single October, is the signal.
Meanwhile, the homes that did sell moved fast — 21 days on average, at 99% of asking. That is not what a falling market looks like.
WHERE THE MARKET IS MOVING
One market is never just one market — and Livermore in 2026 has become a barbell.
On one end: the entry level keeps surging. Homes under $1 million account for 153 sales year-to-date, up 20% from 127 at this point last year — growing from about 21% of the market to 27%. The $900–999K band alone (71 sales) has already passed its full-year 2025 pace of 68, and $800–899K sits at 55 versus 39.
On the other end: the very top is quietly having its best year in this data. Homes over $3 million have closed 8 sales in 2026 — double last year's 4 at this point, and more than any full year since 2022's 8.
And in between, the middle is hollowing out. The $1–1.7M core — historically the heart of Livermore's market — has produced 292 sales year-to-date versus 366 last year, down 20%. (The one mid-market exception: $1.7–1.999M, slightly ahead at 49 versus 46.)
But here's the part the aggregate numbers can't show you — and I saw it up close. This fall, I closed two Livermore purchases for buyer clients within a single week. On one, a home under $1 million — supposedly the "hot" part of this market — we negotiated roughly $65,000 off the asking price. On the other, a turnkey home listed at $1,599,000 — squarely in the "soft" middle — we were one of five offers and paid about $80,000 over asking to win it. Same city, same week, opposite outcomes. The lesson: the price bands tell you where the buyers are, but condition, preparation, and pricing strategy decide what happens to each individual home. A dialed-in home defies a slow segment; a mispriced one squanders a hot one.
Readers of my Pleasanton reports will recognize the pattern with a twist: in September I found Pleasanton's market splitting in two around $1.7 million. Livermore's dividing line sits lower, right around $1 million — same two-speed dynamic, different altitude. That's the kind of thing you only see tracking both cities' data side by side, which I'll now be doing every month.
As always: if this barbell flattens out or reverses, you'll read it here first.
WHAT THIS MEANS IF YOU'RE SELLING
Don't let October's median headline spook you — and don't let it price your home, either. If you’re selling a home in Livermore, comparables and your price band are what matter. Under $1 million, you're in the strongest segment in the city: 21-day sales at virtually full price are the norm. In the $1–1.7M middle, honest preparation and sharp pricing are non-negotiable this fall — that segment's buyers have choices. But as my two October closings showed, the band only sets the odds; your home's condition and price set the outcome. A turnkey home in the "slow" middle just drew five offers and sold well over asking — and an entry-level home gave up $65,000 at the negotiating table. And if you own at the $3M+ level, this is quietly the most active year for Livermore luxury in this five-year dataset — a genuinely strong moment to be on the market.
WHAT THIS MEANS IF YOU'RE BUYING
The mid-market is your opening. With $1–1.7M sales running 20% behind last year and 106 homes on the market, buyers in that range have selection and negotiating room that didn't exist two years ago — while paying the same per square foot as last year's buyers, not more. Entry-level shoppers should come decision-ready; that segment moves in three weeks — though as my October buyers proved, the right home and the right strategy can still win real concessions there. And for South Bay relocators: Livermore at $690 per square foot remains the Tri-Valley's best value per dollar, full stop.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What was the median home price in Livermore in October 2026?
The median sale price for a detached single-family home in Livermore was $1,043,000 in October 2026, down 14.9% from $1,225,000 in October 2025, according to Bay East Association of REALTORS® MLS data.
Did Livermore home values really drop 15%?
No. Price per square foot in October 2026 was $690 — identical to October 2025, and the third consecutive month of essentially flat per-square-foot values. The median decline reflects a shift in which homes sold (more entry-level, fewer mid-market), not a 15% loss in home values.
Is Livermore a buyer's or seller's market right now?
It depends on the price range. Overall supply is 1.9 months with homes selling in 21 days at 99% of asking — seller-leaning by classic measures. But the under-$1M segment is strongly competitive, while buyers in the $1–1.7M range have meaningfully more selection and leverage.
How long does it take to sell a house in Livermore?
In October 2026, Livermore homes averaged 21 days from listing to accepted contract — faster than the 30-day average of a year earlier.
Which segment of the Livermore market is strongest right now?
Both ends of the barbell. Homes under $1 million are up 20% year-to-date (153 sales vs. 127), and homes over $3 million have doubled last year's pace (8 sales vs. 4). The $1–1.7M middle is running about 20% behind last year — though well-prepared homes in every band are still selling quickly and competitively.
Is now a good time to sell a home in Livermore?
For entry-level and $3M+ owners, conditions are notably strong. For mid-market homes, success this fall comes down to preparation and precise pricing — well-priced homes are still selling in three weeks at essentially full asking. A property-specific analysis is the right starting point.
CLOSING / CTA
I've spent 21 years helping Tri-Valley families make smart real estate decisions, and I now publish monthly data breakdowns for both Pleasanton and Livermore — including the segment-level analysis the headlines skip. If you're wondering what October's numbers mean for your home or your search, I'd love to talk it through.
Katie Moe | Connect California Homes | 925-216-9083 | katie@connectcahomes.com | DRE #01507863
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